Still Can Deflation in May

Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) estimates that deflation is still going to happen this month of May. However, deflasinya still lower than last April because of rising prices pertamax and jewelry. Prices of basic needs are still relatively decreased, except rice and sugar. can be concluded there is huge potential for deflation, even though its potential may be smaller than last month.

Price pertamax against inflation is still quite small. Especially gold jewelry price increase also has a small weight. In Budget 2011, the inflation target of 5.3% of control dilevel. In the main points of policy Fiscal 2012, the government said inflation in 2011 could be higher at 6.0% position. Finance Minister says the change has been mostly due to projections of global factors "that later one in 2011 inflation reached 6%, it is because domestic factors, but also globally.

Last April to 0.32% deflation. By April the rate of inflation deflation calendar year (January to April) only reached 0.39%. whereas the year of year inflation reached 6.16%. Inflation in April reached the core component of 0.25%. Calendar year core inflation rate reached 1.31%. Currently, energy prices are still a scourge of inflation. If the price premium is increased to Rp 1,000, will provide an additional inflation of 0.5 to 0.6%. If the premium is removed, the impact on inflation will be greater again to 1.6%. This is because all consumers would switch to pertamax is pegged to the market price.

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Plus The Fuel Subsidy Quota Proposed

Downstream Regulatory Body (BPH) oil propose the addition of subsidized fuel quota in the draft budget of Revenue Expenditure (RAPBD) changes in 2011, from 38.59 million kl (KL) are set out in Budget 2011, so 40.20 million KL. Summary of the volume of subsidized fuel prognosis for the State Budget in 2011 amounted to 40.20 million KL or 4.1% of the volume set out in Budget 2011 at 38.59 million KL. for the premium increase from 23,190,505 to 24,160,483 TOS or an increase of 4.1%. Medium diesel be increased from 13,094,952 14,726,362 KL. Calculation of the addition of the volume of fuel bersudsidi in this draft budget given the ever increasing use of subsidized fuel due to population growth, economic, and therefore contributes to the growth of motorcycle vehicles.

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The Increase in TDL Affect Industry Competitiveness

The design of electric power rate increase (TDL) of 15-20% which is disclosed by Finance Minister Agustin Martowardojo, received responses from industry minister MS Hidayat. Hidayat rate, if the increase in TDL is not accompanied with the support of incentives for the industry, then this design will have an impact on industrial competitiveness homeland.

Also according to him, if followed TDL ride without a certain level of efficiency in the PLN, the burden of the government for subsidies would still be great. Therefore, he said that the company should be given targets including reducing their margins from 8% to 3%.

TDL increase for the industry will be felt seimbangbila followed by another rate improvements, such as bank interest, production subsidies or tax incentives. So therefore, the cost economics of production can be balanced despite increase in TDL.

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Declining Inflow Bank

Inflow (demand) disbursement of money from the banks at Bank Indonesia in the period January-March have increased, while the second week in April and May experienced a slight decline. Of note BI, Inflow bank for the type of bank notes and coins, reach Rp94 billion in January, February Rp96 billion, Rp 288 billion in March, April and May of Rp 160 billion Rp 63.6 billion. This inflow, the BI did not know what the bank intended to, because no authority BI.

The difference with the outflow, where the bank account deposit funds in BI with a certain amount, then the BI to conduct examination of money deposited if no different from a count conducted BI, the bank mailed the above deficiency. So is the money saved would not meet the eligibility or replace worn-out then the BI, the BI did rekapitulsi inflow each month. And frequency of requests for money from the bank was not the same as well as the amount.

Inflow conducted by the bank, the bank simultaneously know the exact use, while BI is no longer in that domain.

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BI Publish Anti-Fraud Guidelines

Bank Indonesia will publish Guidelines for Anti-Fraud Strategy as a response to rampant burglary fund bank customers, particularly in the premium service. The strategy includes four phases. The first stage of preventive stage, cover the use of governance, active oversight of management, and application of the principle of know your employee, the second phase with a detection system also includes whistleblowing, fraud data, and reporting. 

Third, the investigation phase. This phase includes the standard investigation, evaluation of the weaknesses of the system and the imposition of sanctions. While the fourth includes the monitoring, including evaluation of fraud risk assessments and apptite banks. 

Limitation of banks and non-bank products is now very blurred. Thus, BI will coordinate with the supervisory authority of financial institutions and non bank deposit insurance institution. BI also has revealed details of the examination of 23 banks are prohibited from adding premium customers within the next year. 

Because there is a decisive number of innovative products and services that do not matched by the readiness of banks to mitigate the operational risks that occur including the possibility of money laundering. BI then reveal a number of weaknesses organization of fund raising customers' premiums. 

First, the weakness in top management perform periodic review and monitoring of policies, the consistency of implementation of standard operating procedures (SOPs) and internal control the bank. 

Second, weaknesses in the implementation of policies, systems and procedures, as well as human resource policies, such as applying the principle in the bank. 

Third, the weaknesses of information management systems that integrate not deposit products with a portfolio of customers. 

Fourth, the weaknesses in internal control as there is no sudden its auditing system and weaknesses in business processes. Examples of weaknesses include relationship managers who can modify the personal data of customers and knowing the customer withdrawals by others without power of attorney.

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World Oil Prices

Composite stock price index (CSPI) has strengthened and returned to the psychological level of 3800. Index rose 34.654 points (0.91%) to the level of 3814, 816 and LQ 45 index rose 6.468 points (0.96%) to a level of 678.877 at the close of trading yesterday.

Head of the Technical Securities Analyst PT Batavia Prosperindo Billy Budiman said the index managed to rebound yesterday as regional markets are also experiencing the same thing. His rebounding regional markets as world oil prices go up, besides that he also said the technical support JCI in 3780 was very strong. It also encourages the strengthening of the index.

The index today is expected to move sideways between 3780-3830 because according to technical MA MA 5 and 20 in the position of death cross. In trading yesterday carrying foreign investors took profits due to foreign transactions recorded net selling (foreign net sell) valued at USD 837.507 billion in the entire market.

The frequency of trade transactions reached 120 421 times the volume of 5.504 billion shares worth Rp 4.5 trillion. A total of 160 stocks rose, 71 stocks fell, and 105 shares remained. Exchanges in Asia at the close of trading yesterday, the Shanghai composite index fell 6.53 points (0.24%) to a level of 2735.21. Zinc Index rose 153.51 points (0.67%) to the level 22900.79. The Nikkei 225 rose 139.17 points (1.48%) to a level of 9562.05. Straits Times Index rose 3.63 points (0.12%) to a level of 3122.28.

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Premium Increase Choice Easier

Options premium price increase will cause inflationary impact of the most high compared to other options, subsidies and restrictions related to fuel consumption. But the policy was assessed as a simple choice and free from abuse. Simply put a premium price is increased, if the price increases accompanied by cash back (cash refund) for the multiplier effect of public transport price rise would not be too pronounced.

If the price of the further pertamax leave the premium, the government would have difficulty keeping the consumption of subsidized fuel quota of 38.6 million kl this year. Moreover, there is no sanction for luxury cars that consume a premium. The direct impact of rising fuel prices on inflation is actually not too big. Weight of fuel on inflation is only 3%. But who needs to watch out for is the multiplier effect that occurs.

Team supervision eradication policies subsidized fuel has proposed three options for limiting the cost of subsidies and fuel consumption. First, raise the premium price of Rp500 per liter and member cash back into public transport. Both limit the maximum pertamax price Rp 8000 per liter. Third rationed fuel consumption with the control system.

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2012 Inflation Target Maximum 5.5 Percent

Inflation target of 3.5% in 2012 presented the government considered to be too optimistic. Because the threat of rising global food prices are still lurking. Likewise, the factor of poor infrastructure in the country.

According to economist Dradjad Wibowo, a declining inflation trend in recent months heavily influenced food imports and the strengthening of exchange rates. That's what shocks absorb food in the country. The indication, in March and April 2011, the Group contributed to food price deflation.

While intrinsically, the source of inflation in the country is still very strong and can push inflation in 2012 at the level of 6%. Fuel prices raise inflation still has a great opportunity. Damage to road infrastructure in many provinces also contribute greatly to inflation outside of Java, because the cause swelling of the cost of distribution.

Another source of inflation is the rate of expansion of bank credit. Also, the climate anomaly that seems to continue in 2012. For the government should carefully consider the internal factors of inflation because it will have serious consequences for the State.

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Beware COUNTERFEIT MONEY

The period of January until the second week of May, Bank Indonesia found 107 pieces of counterfeit money, with value Rp5.200.000, with details of 20 sheets of fractions 100 thousand, 51 thousand sheets of 50 fractions, 31 fractions of 20 thousand sheets, one sheet and four fractions Rp10rb fractional shares Rp5 thousand.

According to the deputy leader of the Bank Indonesia branch pekanbaru Irwan Zubir, counterfeit money is known from the banks request filed on BI, where they are unsure of the money tersebut.oleh BI money dilakuakan examination and know the results.

Fake money that in mind this is not done according to the replacement of the banks that report as well as from BI, but delivered to the police. Examination of this fake money can actually be known from the Bank, but if there is any doubt and to report on the BI, the examination.

Is this fake money be replaced? he said no, because there is no rule change, the same money in a shabby condition but the original, was replaced new. Circulation of counterfeit money was argued, should be prevented. The public should know in detail the characteristic of counterfeit money, but if doubt can langsungtanyakan on the banks and BI itself.

Know your dollars with the 3D (as seen, touched, diterawang). And there is the security thread that is certain material that is planted in paper money and appears as a transverse or beranyam, change color.

With so many counterfeit money in circulation today are expected to the public to be careful anymore and more observant in receiving the money, thus reducing peredaraan counterfeit money in the community.

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